Unprecedented barrage overwhelms Iron Dome in parts; Tel Aviv hit; global oil prices surge; India voices concern for peace.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for the attack, dubbed "Operation True Promise Part 3," stating it involved over 150 ballistic missiles and 100 drones fired across Israel. Sources suggest the sheer volume of the attack was designed to swamp Israel's Iron Dome and even the Arrow 3 missile defense systems. While Israel claims to have intercepted the majority, visuals circulating online show rockets impacting in Tel Aviv and other areas.
Specific targets reportedly hit by Iranian projectiles included areas near the financial centre in Tel Aviv, close to the Israeli Defence Ministry and the Ministry of Economy. Missiles also reportedly struck the Tel Nof airbase and locations near Haifa's sea coast.
Experts believe Iran may have employed a more sophisticated strategy this time compared to previous exchanges, potentially including launches from submarines, to further complicate and overload Israeli defenses. Israel, under its own operation "Rising Line," has vowed to retaliate.
While initial casualty figures in Israel remain relatively low – around 60 injured and two fatalities reported – the psychological impact and damage to infrastructure are significant. Reports suggest Israel's media was privately advised to limit broadcasting visuals of the rockets hitting cities to maintain national morale.
Information Warfront
Both nations are also locked in an information war. Iran released videos of missile launches and claimed success, warning Israel that "life will become bitter for them." Israel, conversely, focused on highlighting its high interception rate.
India's Nuanced Stand
Amidst the escalating conflict, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. PM Modi tweeted about the call, stating Netanyahu briefed him on the evolving situation. Crucially, Modi conveyed India's concerns and stressed the urgent need for peace and stability in the region. Notably, his post did not include the phrase "Israel has a right to defend itself," a stance some analysts link to India's economic vulnerability to rising oil prices.
Economic Shockwaves
The most immediate and widespread consequence has been the jolt to global oil markets. Crude oil prices surged over 8% in a single day following the attack. Financial experts, including those at JPMorgan, are predicting prices could easily cross $100 per barrel and potentially hit $120 if the conflict intensifies. This threatens to fuel inflation globally, potentially pushing US inflation to 5%, impacting stock markets worldwide, and posing significant energy supply challenges for nations like India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Japan, and China.
Strait of Hormuz in Focus
The gravest fear remains the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical choke point for Persian Gulf oil exports. Experts warn that if Israel were to target Iran's top leadership, Iran might retaliate by blocking the Strait. Such a move could trigger global panic, sending oil prices soaring to $150-$200 per barrel and severely damaging the global economy. This scenario could also draw in the US Navy and potentially lead to increased military support for Iran from countries like China.
Unconfirmed Claims Emerge
Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports are circulating regarding potential external involvement. Some US defense forums and writers have suggested that the Pakistan Air Force is quietly gathering data near the Iranian border and sharing it with the US, which could indirectly benefit Israel's targeting efforts, despite Pakistan's official condemnation of the Iranian attack.
Adding to the uncertainty, Iranian state media like the Tehran Times have claimed that Iran shot down two Israeli F-35 jets using S-300 missile systems and captured a pilot. This significant claim, if true, would have major implications, particularly given the F-35's advanced reputation and its relevance to countries like India considering its purchase. Further investigation into this claim is ongoing.
The region stands at a critical juncture, with the world watching anxiously for the next move from Jerusalem and Tehran.